Food inflation was running at 1.3% in September, official figures show — low by the standards of the past few years, and unchanged from August. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that food and non-alcoholic drinks prices actually fell by 0.2% in the month, even as overall inflation rose to 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August, driven by higher motor fuel prices and transport costs. The CPIH measure, which includes owner-occupier housing costs, reached 3.6%, up from 3.3% in August.
Retailers' own figures, covering October, suggest the calm may not last. The British Retail Consortium's BRC-NIQ shop price monitor, based on prices collected between 1 and 7 October, found food inflation of 2.9%, up from 2.5% in September and its highest since April. Overall shop price inflation reached 2.1%, the fastest in two and a half years. A third measure, from Worldpanel by Numerator, put grocery price inflation at 2.5% in the four weeks to 4 October, up from 2.3% in the previous four weeks.
The three figures differ because they count different things: the ONS tracks a broad basket of goods and services across the whole economy, the BRC tracks shelf prices in shops, and Worldpanel tracks what shoppers actually buy at the tills. The ONS figure is the official measure of what households are paying; the shop measures are a faster, narrower read of the shelves. The next official test comes on 18 November, when the ONS publishes its October inflation figures — the first read on whether the October rise at the tills has fed through to the national measure.
"The dam is starting to break on the huge wave of costs retailers have absorbed over the last two years," Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said when the figures were published on 27 October. She called on the Chancellor, John Healey, to lower retailers' property taxes and employment costs in his first Budget, which followed the next day on 28 October. The BRC blamed higher transport and energy costs, along with employment costs and packaging levies, for the renewed pressure.
The £61 gap between supermarkets
Where shoppers buy their food now makes a bigger difference than it has all year. Consumer champion Which? compared 87 everyday items across eight major supermarkets in October 2026 and found Aldi the cheapest, at £154.34 for the basket. Lidl came next, at £157.17 with its Lidl Plus loyalty discount and £157.21 without it. Tesco with a Clubcard worked out at £181.77, Sainsbury's with Nectar at £182.90, Asda at £183.47 and Morrisons at £186.77. The same basket cost £215.87 at Waitrose — £61.53 more than at Aldi.
It was Aldi's twelfth month in a row at the top of the Which? ranking, a run stretching back to November 2025 and covering every month of 2026 so far. Even after loyalty discounts were applied, shoppers still paid £27.43 more at Tesco and £28.56 more at Sainsbury's than at Aldi for the same 87 items.
"As we head into the Christmas festivities, we are proud to be able to deliver standout quality at affordable prices and help our customers save towards making this time of year extra special," Julie Ashfield, chief commercial officer at Aldi UK, said. She added that the festive season can be an expensive time of year, which is why so many families start their preparations early to help spread the cost.
Shoppers are buying less and hunting promotions
The till data shows how households are responding. Worldpanel reported that take-home grocery sales rose by just 1.0% in the four weeks to 4 October compared with a year earlier — less than the 2.5% rate of grocery price inflation, which means shoppers bought less in volume terms. Spending on promotions was more than £250 million higher than in the same period in October 2025, as shoppers leaned harder on deals and loyalty prices.
"With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers," Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, said. Prices rose fastest in the four weeks to 4 October for water, cordials and skincare, while butter, cheese and chocolate saw the fastest price falls at the tills.
The discounters are still gaining ground. Over the 12 weeks to 4 October, grocery sales grew by 7.1% at Lidl, while Marks & Spencer's food sales rose by 14.9%, the fastest of any grocer, and Ocado's by 12.4%. Asda's sales fell by 0.5% over the same period.
The food thrown away is worth £1,000 a year
The price rises land on top of a waste problem that already costs households dearly. WRAP, the charity behind the Love Food Hate Waste campaign, reported in March 2026 that UK homes throw away 4.4 million tonnes of edible food every year, worth £17 billion — about £1,000 a year for an average household of four, or £86 a month. By the end of Food Waste Action Week on 15 March, the average household of four had already thrown away £200 worth of food it could have eaten in 2026.
Almost two-thirds of people in the UK — 64% — told WRAP's survey that they believe some food waste at home is inevitable, even though four-fifths believe they waste less than the national average. From 31 March 2026, weekly separate food waste collections became a requirement in England under the government's Simpler Recycling rules, with 85% of households due to have them, giving more homes a weekly reminder of what is being binned.
What happens next
For now, the official measure says food inflation is low and flat, while the shop measures say it is turning up again. The test comes on 18 November, when the ONS publishes its October inflation figures. If they confirm the October rise at the tills, the weekly shop will be getting dearer again just as households head into the most expensive weeks of the year; if they do not, the October rise will look like a blip in an otherwise easing trend.