The UK jobs market is flat, and the official figures published on 20 October 2026 say so in unusually plain terms. The Office for National Statistics put unemployment at 4.7% for June to August 2026, down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter and on the year, and the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 at 75.3%, up 0.2 points. But the number of people on company payrolls was lower than a year ago — 30.3 million in September 2026 on the early estimate, down 66,000, or 0.2%, on the year — and job vacancies fell to 691,000 in July to September, down 21,000 on the quarter and 37,000 on the year. Outside the pandemic, that is the lowest vacancy figure since July to September 2014. "The labour market remains broadly flat in 2026," the ONS said.
Pay is the other half of the picture, and it is barely keeping ahead of prices. Annual growth in regular pay — excluding bonuses — was 3.7% in June to August 2026, and total pay growth, including bonuses, was also 3.7%, its lowest rate in nearly six years. After inflation, regular pay grew by just 0.8% on the CPI measure. The ONS's Deputy Director of Labour Market Statistics, David Freeman, said: "Regular wage growth remained relatively stable, though total pay — including bonuses — has eased to its lowest rate in nearly six years." The averages hide a split: regular pay grew 6.3% in the public sector, where the ONS says the figures are still affected by the timing of pay awards, and 3.0% in the private sector, where most people work.
The recruiters' view: hiring down, starting pay up
The picture a month later, from the recruiters who fill the jobs, is consistent with the official figures — and a little worse on hiring. The KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs, published on 9 November 2026 and compiled by S&P Global from around 400 recruitment consultancies surveyed between 12 and 26 October, found permanent placements fell in October for the first time in four months. Its permanent placements index dropped to 46.6 from 50.9 in September — below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, and its lowest reading since May. Temporary billings fell to 48.9 from 50.9, their first fall since March. Candidate availability, meanwhile, has now risen for 44 consecutive months, driven by redundancies and by fewer openings to apply for.
But pay moved against the volumes. Starting salaries for permanent staff rose at a faster pace in October, and average pay for temporary workers also increased more quickly, as consultancies reported employers competing for high-calibre candidates who remain in short supply — though pay growth on both measures stayed below its long-run average. Demand for workers fell at its slowest rate in 26 months. The pattern was uneven by sector: permanent vacancies rose in six of the ten categories monitored, led by IT and computing and by engineering, while retail and hotel and catering fell most steeply.
The pay floor: what the minimum wage now guarantees
For workers in the lowest-paid roles, the most concrete change of the year came in April. The National Living Wage for workers aged 21 and over rose to £12.71 an hour on 1 April 2026, up 50p, or 4.1%, from £12.21. The Government's own figure is that a National Living Wage worker on 37.5 hours a week gains £977 a year in gross pay from the rise. The rates for younger workers rose by more: 18- to 20-year-olds to £10.85 an hour, and under-18s and apprentices to £8.00. And the next rise is already announced: on 28 October 2026 the Government said the National Living Wage will rise to £13.21 from April 2027, accepting the Low Pay Commission's recommendations in full.
That floor matters because it is where pay growth has been strongest. Regular pay growth of 3.7% looks modest next to the 4.1% rise in the legal minimum, and next to CPI inflation of 3.5% in September 2026. For a worker on the National Living Wage, the April rise was real money; for a middle earner whose pay rose 3% — the private-sector average — the improvement after inflation and higher housing, food and transport costs can feel small or even illusory. This is the crux of the cost-of-living squeeze as it now stands: pay is rising, but only just faster than prices, and the gap between the two is the thinnest it has been in years.
Deciding: benchmark, move, or train
First, benchmark. If you want to know what you are worth, benchmark it rather than guessing. The National Careers Service publishes job profiles that describe typical duties and the skills employers ask for, and a week spent reading adverts for your exact role in your own area will tell you more than any national average. Look at what the adverts ask for, what they offer, and which ones have been reposted for weeks — a role reposted again and again is a role the employer is struggling to fill, and that is leverage. The October Report on Jobs gives that leverage a shape: IT and computing and engineering vacancies are growing, while retail and hotel and catering vacancies are falling fastest.
Second, move — but move on the whole package, not the salary. That lever fits when your sector is hiring, your adverts show reposted roles, and your current employer will not match what the market offers. The October figures suggest caution here: permanent placements have just fallen for the first time in four months, and candidate availability has risen for 44 months in a row, so competition for each opening is stiffer than it was. Check probation, pension, holiday and notice before you accept: a higher salary that comes with a three-month probation and a worse pension may not be a better deal at all.
Third, train, and train concretely. Apprenticeships are listed on the Government's Find an apprenticeship service, open to adults as well as school leavers, and they pay a wage while you train. Local colleges run short evening and weekend courses in everything from digital skills to trade qualifications, and many employers will fund a course if you can show how it helps the team. One specific course, booked and finished, beats a vague plan to learn something someday. Training is the right lever when your sector is contracting — retail and hospitality are the clearest cases in the October data — or when the adverts for the roles you want keep asking for a qualification you do not yet have.
The next official test of all this comes soon: the ONS publishes its next labour market overview on 17 November 2026, and the Office for Budget Responsibility expects unemployment to rise to just above 5% by mid-2027. Until then, the honest summary of the market is the ONS's own: broadly flat, with pay growing at 3.7% and vacancies at their lowest outside the pandemic since 2014. For workers, the decision guide is simpler than the headlines: benchmark first, so you know which message is yours; then choose the lever that fits.